{
  "schemaVersion": 2,
  "date": "2026.09.20",
  "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T09:32:05-07:00",
  "timeZone": "America/Los_Angeles",
  "title": "Adaptive-discovery feasibility stops at historical evidence gate",
  "publicationStatus": "Requires a prospective design; no pilot authorized",
  "executiveSummary": [
    "The approved feasibility stage reached its early stop: readily available evidence does not support the proposed historical query-policy comparison.",
    "Verified 413 packet hashes in the proposed date window; every packet declares that raw external text was not retained. Partial archive records do not repair the missing historical input population.",
    "Produced a prospective replacement draft. Scorer calibration, local model measurement, final preregistration and A/B/C/D execution were not performed after the gate failed.",
    "No production discovery, query, source authority, ontology, promotion authority or observer safety changes were made. No new mission-governance mechanism was introduced."
  ],
  "workstreams": [
    {
      "title": "Bounded historical corpus check",
      "status": "Completed: admission not passed",
      "details": [
        "Inspected configured discovery packet storage and producer schema. Of 802 enumerated JSON packets, 413 fall within August 28–September 19 Pacific. All verified against sidecars; no development-window packets were present in this tree.",
        "GitHub evidence preserves response hashes and byte counts, but not enough source text and historical background metadata to evaluate unissued queries.",
        "Common Crawl September catalog spans September 4–17. A bounded repository-search URL-pattern query returned 30 records and one reported page; none matches the narrow or six draft broad queries, and sorts are stars or unspecified.",
        "GH Archive supplies events and some metadata, not a demonstrated continuous repository-state history. GHTorrent documentation cautions about dump-generation dates. Software Heritage supports source/metadata preservation but no immediately suitable series was established.",
        "No bulk archive ingestion, historical-index engineering or renewed motivating-case search was undertaken. Failure to locate an admissible corpus is not proof that no such archive exists."
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Prospective replacement",
      "status": "Draft for review",
      "details": [
        "Proposes capturing actual synchronized read-only A/B/C/D query responses in an isolated environment after separate approval, with seven-day development and fourteen-day evaluation windows.",
        "Uses a frozen independent reference observation frame and explicitly calls its metric reference-frame recall, not internet-wide recall. Additional arm-only discoveries remain separately measured.",
        "Specifies future independent reviewer calibration, model fixture measurements, total cost accounting, capture completeness and authority gates. None of those gates is claimed passed.",
        "Preserves the existing hypothesis and records the finding under external research synthesis, still blocked_on_measurement; no experiment created."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "decisions": [
    "Stop historical reconstruction now rather than invent missing index or metadata states.",
    "Do not proceed to scorer/model measurements after the user-specified early-stop condition.",
    "Do not issue final preregistration until the replacement design and measurement gates are approved and passed.",
    "Keep the objective limited to the already-established fixed-discovery-space limitation."
  ],
  "validation": [
    {
      "check": "Local corpus integrity",
      "status": "passed",
      "result": "413 of 413 in-window packets matched existing SHA-256 sidecars; all raw-text persistence flags were false."
    },
    {
      "check": "Historical corpus admission",
      "status": "not_passed",
      "result": "No defensible sealed historical input population was established within the bounded review."
    },
    {
      "check": "Research state and protected files",
      "status": "passed",
      "result": "Canonical edit and HRO schema validated. Parent question/hypotheses/experiment links and protected source/sentinel hashes remain unchanged."
    },
    {
      "check": "Scorer, model envelope and pilot",
      "status": "not_run",
      "result": "Skipped following historical early-stop gate; no inference, benchmark or final preregistration."
    },
    {
      "check": "Journal tests/build",
      "status": "passed",
      "result": "npm run test:hiro and npm run build passed; 235 entries validated with timestamp, alias and noindex checks, followed by TypeScript/Vite build."
    }
  ],
  "currentState": [
    "Determination: REQUIRES A PROSPECTIVE DESIGN.",
    "Research state remains blocked_on_measurement; adaptive efficacy is untested.",
    "Prospective collection and pilot remain unapproved."
  ],
  "nextSteps": [
    "Alex reviews the prospective draft.",
    "If separately approved, calibrate the independent scorer and measure safe local fixture performance before requesting pilot execution approval."
  ],
  "disclosureNote": "Public aggregate evidence and design limitations only; no private source text, credentials or sensitive implementation details."
}